Why Do We Always Expect the Number to Go Up?

Which numbers? All of them.

Guy Watching All His Numbers Go Up. Via.

Hey friends,

I’m not an economist. I don’t know anything about economic theory, historical wage trends, monetary policy, or honestly math more advanced than calculus. I’m decent with numbers, though, and luckily, numbers in publishing are relatively simple. It’s percentages. My paycheck is based on 15% of the money I help my clients make. Royalty rates are a percentage of the price or costs of a book. Heck, I rarely even have to take more than 25% of anything, and that math I can do in my head. I use spreadsheets and calculators and back-of-the-envelope math to do my job every day, and sometimes I even enjoy it. But none of this has anything to do with the fact that all of us—me, you, writers, editors, publishers, everyone—expects all the numbers to go up. Forever.

One could argue this way of thinking has lead us to where we all are, as a country, at this particular moment. (That and fascism, ofc.) Managers need their graphs to go up. Retailers need their graphs to go up. Shareholders need their graphs to go up. If they don’t, then someone somewhere did something wrong, and someone better fix it. I’ve even felt this pressure when looking at graphs for this very newsletter. If my subscriber and revenue graphs are not going UP UP UP, I must be doing something wrong. Sometimes that has lead me to look at what I’m doing and try to offer new and/or more valuable (to you, the reader) content, and I am happy with that. I’m a one person show here, and if I do good work that you like and am rewarded with increased subscribers and/or revenue, then cool—everybody wins.

But we think this is how it should work in all things, money-wise. Your starting salary should go up over time. You have more experience, skills, tenure therefore you are more valuable to your employer. If you switch careers, it’s understandable you might experience a little salary dip, but that should recover over time as you work your way up. And since that’s how it works with your day job, that’s how it should work when you’re an author, too, right?

Unfortunately, no. Don’t get me wrong—I WANT it to work this way. But as my mom used to say, wanting and getting are two different things. The unfortunate reality is that the authors whose publishing earnings go up over time are the exception, not the rule. It sucks. I know. I’m sorry. But I wanted to write about this today to share some real talk about money so you know what you could possibly expect. I’ve seen the opposite expectation really throw authors for a loop.

Here’s how it sometimes works. Ms. Genius Author gets a good advance for her first two books. Everyone’s happy! Everyone’s excited! Book 1 comes out and it does pretty well! Everyone’s happy! Everyone’s excited! Book 2 comes out and it doesn’t do quite as well as book 1. This is normal. On average, Book 2s sell fewer copies than Book 1s. Book 2s also act to boost Book 1s’ sales, whether they’re in a series or not. Maybe Book 2 reminds readers they actually wanted to read Book 1, and hey look, it’s out in paperback now. Sometimes publishers offer discounts on Book 1s when Book 2 comes out, thus it gets a little boost. Lots of stuff like that can happen. In general, sales trend down from Book 1 to Book 2. No one on the publisher/agent side of things is surprised when this happens, but I’ve met many authors who are. That’s why I’m telling you this now.

Sometimes, though, Book 2 will hit the list, or get picked for a book club, or be made into a movie (MANY years after pub), or become an indie darling, or whatever happens and things go up! Huzzah! And if it’s time for a new book deal, the advance for Book 3 (and 4??) could go up! You could get more for your next book deal and everybody’s really happy.

But authors do not automatically get more money for Books 3 & 4, just because they got X amount for Books 1 & 2. The number does not always go up because of experience or skills, or other things that could make you look valuable to employers in traditional salary/wage situations. Being an author is not like having a salaried job. You are not an employee of the publishing house. If Books 1 & 2 don’t hit the way everyone was hoping, then the publisher can say sales just weren’t where we hoped they’d be for Books 1 & 2 so we can only offer X for the next one. Sometimes they don’t offer at all. This sucks! And why didn’t Books 1 & 2 not sell as well? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Sometimes the publisher does not support books (well or at all). Sometimes the sales teams don’t get it. Sometimes the cover doesn’t work for the market. Sometimes the author and editor thought the market would go one way and it goes the other. Sometimes the author’s followers don’t respond to the book like everyone thought they would. Sometimes it’s all or half or most of theses things. Sometimes books just don’t sell. Publishing doesn’t do focus groups or collect robust data like other retail industries and can’t always look back and say wow, we were doing baggy jeans right when skinny jeans came back or wow, we really thought the market would like this romantasy but it turns out they all bought the other one. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Either way, it’s never just one thing.

This is all unfair. It is unfair to expect authors to make do with meager advances, no support, and no market insight. These are facts. But also, this is reality. I don’t think we can make publishing fair because capitalism isn’t fair. Can we make it better? I think so! But we can’t make it fair.

And again, being an author is not like having a salaried job. Is it as much work as a salaried job? Yes, often. Is it more work than some people you know do at their salaried job? Yes, for sure. But it is not a salaried job and won’t act like one and we need to stop expecting it to act like one. The “salary,” i.e. the advance, is not going to always go up. I WANT it to. We try like hell for it TO GO UP. But it is not a salary.

Other artistic jobs don’t work like this and we’re ok with it. When you’re starting out as a band, you take gigs at small venues and when you sell those out, you get invited to bigger venues, and probably make more money. But down the line if you are not selling out the big venues, you won’t keep booking the big venues, and thus your payout takes a hit and we’re all just like yep, that’s how the music industry works. It’s not fun, especially if you’re the band, but we all seem to understand that’s how it goes. Maybe it’s because we can all see the size of the venues. If your favorite band is playing Madison Square Garden one year and your local pub the next, you can kinda see what’s going on there. Readers, and authors, can’t see the size of anyone else’s venue, or take of the door. That author you think is everywhere might only be selling 4-5,000 copies a year (which is a pretty good number tbh!). That author you know got a HUGE advance for her first few books might be hanging on for dear life for her next book deal. You just don’t know.

The not knowing is what breeds this number must go up mentality, I think. In the absence of facts and knowledge, we assume things work the way other things work, i.e you get a raise every few years in your regular job, ergo you get higher advances every time you sell a book. Except not in publishing. I do not think I will get more money for my next book, whatever that is, whatever genre it is, just because I got X for my first one. I might get more for my (hypothetical) second non-fiction book if this first one does well. If it doesn’t, I will be lucky to get a second non-fiction book deal, not because I didn’t try hard or don’t deserve it, but because I’m gonna have to figure out a way to get people to buy another thing about this writing and publishing stuff. Right now, I don’t have a clear idea what that will be. Maybe there won’t be a second non-fiction book. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ We’ll see. But I’m not going to get another, bigger book deal just because it’s my second one. Even for me, the number doesn’t always go up.

Remembering this will save you a lot of heartbreak when it’s time to think about your next book deal. You can want anything you can dream of. I want it for you, too. But if you expect it, think you’re due it, well, that leads to disappointment and anger. Let me say this again. I WANT all our numbers to always go up. But they don’t. And the best thing you can do to help your career as a writer is write the damn books you want to write, so that you are at the very least personally satisfied and read and talk about other books so that you’re working to spread the good word about books and reading in general, in the hopes that more people will do it, and thus someone, somewhere will see their numbers go up.

Numerically yours,

Kate